Sweden vs Poland
Brier 0.00780
Strawberry Arena, Solna · Vincic (SLO)
VALUE: Poland Win @4.00 → Model @2.83 | Edge +10.4%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Italy
Brier 0.02847
Bilino Polje, Zenica (9,000) · Turpin (FRA)
VALUE: Bosnia Win @6.50 → Model @3.16 | Edge +17.1%
Czech Republic vs Denmark
Brier 0.00773
Czech Republic (Home) · Referee TBC
VALUE: Czech Rep Win @3.10 → Model @2.34 | Edge +10.5%
Kosovo vs Turkey
Brier 0.00892
Kosovo (Home) · Referee TBC
VALUE: Kosovo Win @4.20 → Model @3.45 | Edge +5.2%
Value Bet Scanner
| Match |
Bet |
Bookie Odds |
Model Odds |
Model % |
Bookie % |
Edge |
EV |
| BIH vs ITA |
Bosnia Win |
@6.50 |
@3.16 |
31.6% |
14.6% |
+17.1% |
+1.056 |
| SWE vs POL |
Poland Win |
@4.00 |
@2.83 |
35.4% |
24.2% |
+10.4% |
+0.415 |
| CZE vs DEN |
Czech Rep Win |
@3.10 |
@2.34 |
42.8% |
32.3% |
+10.5% |
+0.326 |
| KOS vs TUR |
Over 8.5 Corners |
@1.85 |
@1.47 |
68.0% |
54.0% |
+14.0% |
+0.259 |
| KOS vs TUR |
Kosovo Win |
@4.20 |
@3.45 |
29.0% |
23.8% |
+5.2% |
+0.216 |
| BIH vs ITA |
BTTS Yes |
@2.30 |
@2.05 |
48.8% |
43.5% |
+5.3% |
+0.122 |
| BIH vs ITA |
Over 9.5 Corners |
@2.00 |
@1.80 |
55.5% |
50.0% |
+5.5% |
+0.110 |
| KOS vs TUR |
Draw |
@3.75 |
@3.44 |
29.1% |
26.7% |
+2.4% |
+0.090 |
Match Events Probability
| Match |
Extra Time Probability |
Penalty Shootout Probability |
Red Card Probability |
Penalty Awarded Probability |
| SWE vs POL |
30.3% |
17.4% |
14.2% |
28.6% |
| BIH vs ITA |
27.3% |
14.9% |
15.6% |
21.8% |
| CZE vs DEN |
30.8% |
17.2% |
14.2% |
23.7% |
| KOS vs TUR |
29.1% |
16.3% |
5.2% |
5.4% |
All odds collected 31 March 2026 from oddschecker / Bet365 / FanDuel / Polymarket consensus
Team news verified 31 March 2026 via UEFA.com, BBC Sport, ESPN, Flashscore
147 data points verified per fixture · Dixon-Coles Monte Carlo · 50,000 iterations | 100 optimisation passes per fixture
90-Minute Result
Sweden Win
34.4%
Model @2.91
Bookie @2.05 (47.3%)
Draw
30.3%
Model @3.30
Bookie @3.40 (28.5%)
Poland Win
35.4%
Model @2.83
Bookie @4.00 (24.2%)
Qualification Probability
Extra Time Probability30.3%
Penalty Shootout Probability17.4%
Goals Market
Average Goals2.14
BTTS43.3%
Corners
Average Corners10.2
Cards & Match Events
Average Yellows3.1
Over 3.5 Yellows38.1%
Over 4.5 Yellows20.5%
Red Card Probability14.2%
Penalty Awarded28.6%
Goal Distribution
Sweden (lambda: 1.006)
Poland (lambda: 1.043)
Value Bet Identified
| Bet | Bookie Odds | Model Odds | Model % | Bookie % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Poland Win | @4.00 | @2.83 | 35.4% | 24.2% | +10.4% | +0.415 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | @1.85 | @1.80 | 55.6% | 54.1% | +1.6% | +0.029 |
Key Intelligence Factors
- 4 key Swedish injuries: Isak, Kulusevski, Hien, Gudmundsson -- massive blow to attacking and defensive quality
- Poland unbeaten in 7 matches under manager Urban -- strong tactical discipline and momentum
- Mirror of 2022 playoff: Poland won 2-0 in Chorzow in near-identical circumstances
- Lewandowski averaging 0.70 goals per 90 minutes -- elite finishing threat at the highest level
- Referee Vincic has a 28.6% penalty award rate -- expect set-piece drama
Data correct as of: 31 March 2026, 17:00 CET
90-Minute Result
Bosnia Win
31.6%
Model @3.16
Bookie @6.50 (14.6%)
Draw
27.3%
Model @3.66
Bookie @3.75 (25.2%)
Italy Win
41.1%
Model @2.44
Bookie @1.57 (60.2%)
Qualification Probability
Extra Time Probability27.3%
Penalty Shootout Probability14.9%
Goals Market
Average Goals2.42
BTTS48.8%
Corners
Average Corners10.2
Cards & Match Events
Average Yellows3.9
Over 3.5 Yellows54.4%
Over 4.5 Yellows34.8%
Red Card Probability15.6%
Penalty Awarded21.8%
Turpin Penalty Rate22%
Turpin Red Card Rate18%
Value Bets Identified
| Bet | Bookie Odds | Model Odds | Model % | Bookie % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Bosnia Win | @6.50 | @3.16 | 31.6% | 14.6% | +17.1% | +1.056 |
| BTTS Yes | @2.30 | @2.05 | 48.8% | 43.5% | +5.3% | +0.122 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | @2.00 | @1.80 | 55.5% | 50.0% | +5.5% | +0.110 |
Key Intelligence Factors
- Italy failed to qualify in 2018 AND 2022 -- this is their third straight World Cup playoff, a historic crisis for the Azzurri
- Clement Turpin is the SAME referee from Italy's 2022 North Macedonia loss -- a deeply ominous assignment for Italian supporters
- Gennaro Gattuso is brand new as Italy manager -- minimal preparation time, unproven tactical system at international level
- Edin Dzeko continues to score at age 40 -- veteran talisman provides elite experience and finishing in big moments
- Stadium reduced to 9,000 capacity -- intimate, hostile cauldron atmosphere in freezing Zenica conditions (3 degrees Celsius)
Goal Distribution
Bosnia (lambda: 1.098)
Italy (lambda: 1.295)
Data correct as of: 31 March 2026, 17:00 CET
90-Minute Result
Czech Rep Win
42.8%
Model @2.34
Bookie @3.10 (32.3%)
Draw
30.8%
Model @3.25
Bookie @3.65 (27.4%)
Denmark Win
26.4%
Model @3.79
Bookie @2.48 (40.3%)
Qualification Probability
Extra Time Probability30.8%
Penalty Shootout Probability17.2%
Goals Market
Average Goals2.11
BTTS42.1%
Corners
Average Corners10.2
Cards & Match Events
Average Yellows4.5
Over 3.5 Yellows66.9%
Over 4.5 Yellows47.8%
Red Card Probability14.2%
Penalty Awarded23.7%
Value Bets Identified
| Bet | Bookie Odds | Model Odds | Model % | Bookie % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Czech Rep Win | @3.10 | @2.34 | 42.8% | 32.3% | +10.5% | +0.326 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | @1.85 | @1.79 | 55.8% | 54.1% | +1.8% | +0.033 |
Key Intelligence Factors
- Bookmakers have Denmark as favourite but the model strongly disagrees -- significant market inefficiency detected
- Czech Republic home advantage provides a measurable edge in this knockout format
Goal Distribution
Czech Rep (lambda: 1.188)
Denmark (lambda: 0.876)
Data correct as of: 31 March 2026, 17:00 CET
90-Minute Result
Kosovo Win
29.0%
Model @3.45
Bookie @4.20 (23.8%)
Draw
29.1%
Model @3.44
Bookie @3.75 (26.7%)
Turkey Win
42.0%
Model @2.38
Bookie @2.02 (49.5%)
Qualification Probability
Extra Time Probability29.1%
Penalty Shootout Probability16.3%
Goals Market
Average Goals2.15
BTTS42.9%
Corners
Average Corners10.2
Match Events
Red Card Probability5.2%
Penalty Awarded5.4%
Value Bet Identified
| Bet | Bookie Odds | Model Odds | Model % | Bookie % | Edge | EV |
|---|
| Kosovo Win | @4.20 | @3.45 | 29.0% | 23.8% | +5.2% | +0.216 |
| Draw | @3.75 | @3.44 | 29.1% | 26.7% | +2.4% | +0.090 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | @1.85 | @1.47 | 68.0% | 54.0% | +14.0% | +0.259 |
Key Intelligence Factors
- Kosovo home advantage is a significant factor in this knockout tie
- Turkey travelling away reduces their effectiveness compared to bookie assessment
Goal Distribution
Kosovo (lambda: 0.926)
Turkey (lambda: 1.183)
Data correct as of: 31 March 2026, 17:00 CET
